Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election marks the mainstreaming of conservative populism as a prominent feature of U.S. politics. His “Make America Great Again” policy agenda and his team of loyalists will bring about profound changes in the domestic and foreign affairs of the U.S., and have a spillover effect on the China-U.S. relationship. Trump is trying to start “a Neo-Reaganite Era”, which may help the U.S. alleviate its long- standing ills and take on a new look, or plunge it into even deeper confrontations and crises. Given the populist turn in many Western countries, the destructive impact of Trump’s second term on the international order are likely to intensify. The debates within the U.S. strategic community during the 2024 election is noteworthy, with some making no secret of their “Reaganite impulses” on China. The tension between different concepts and ideas, such as “managed competition” versus “defeating China”, or “compete to win” versus “quick victory”, will exert a significant influence on the trajectory of U.S. policy towards China. In the upcoming years, the power balance between China and the U.S. with the latter in a stronger position will be here to stay, but the U.S. has a number of disadvantages, such as the intensification of domestic divisions, the alienation of allies, and the challenge of credibility loss. China needs to examine the Trump shock from a medium and long-term perspective and address the China-U.S. competition more prudently and flexibly, so as to avoid being drawn into the “vortex of competition” created by the hawkish forces in the U.S..

　　Editor: Zhong Yao  Deng Panyi

　　From: Foreign Affairs Review. 2025.No.1.