On the surface, the Trump movement appears to be very solid and practically indestructible. But this is an optical illusion. In reality it is a very heterogeneous movement, riven with profound contradictions. Sooner or later, these will become manifest.

　　The liberal enemies of Trump are hoping that the failure of his economic policies will lead to widespread disappointment and loss of support. Such a failure is entirely predictable. Already the imposition of tariffs is being met with inevitable reprisals. This must eventually be reflected in job losses and factory closures in the affected industries.

　　However, the predictions of an imminent demise of the Trump movement are premature. Trump has aroused enormous expectations and hopes among millions of people who were without all hope before. Such illusions are deep-rooted and powerful enough to withstand a whole series of shocks and temporary disappointments.

　　It will take time for the hypnotic spell of Trump’s demagogy to dissipate. But sooner or later, the disillusionment will set in, and the longer it takes for the workers to understand that their class interests are not represented, the more violent the reaction will be.

　　Donald Trump is now quite old and even if he succeeds in dodging an assassin’s bullet, nature must sooner or later impose its iron laws. In any event, he is unlikely to stand again for president – even if the rules could be changed to allow it. 

　　It is impossible to imagine Trumpism without the person of Donald J Trump. It is precisely the power of his personality, his undoubted skill as a mass leader and master demagogue, that is the glue that holds his heterogeneous movement together. Without it, the inner contradictions that exist within it will inevitably come to the surface, bringing about internal crises and fractures in the leadership.

　　J.D. Vance seems the most likely successor of Donald Trump, but he lacks the immense authority and charisma of his leader. He is, however, an intelligent man who may well evolve in all kinds of directions on the basis of events. It is impossible to predict the result. 

　　There is a well-known law of mechanics that states that every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Donald Trump is a master of hyperbole. His demagogic utterances know no bounds. Everything he promises is marvellous, tremendous, wonderful, enormous, and so on. And the degree of disappointment, when it finally comes, would be correspondingly enormous.

　　At a certain point, his movement will begin to fracture along class lines. As the workers begin to desert him, the crazed petty bourgeois elements will probably coalesce in what will be the embryo of a new and genuinely fascist or Bonapartist organisation.

　　Out of the chaotic situation, the movement in the direction of a third party will become irresistible. By its very nature, it will be a confused affair – not necessarily with a left-wing or even particularly progressive programme in the first instance. But events will have a logic of their own.

　　Many workers, having burnt their fingers with Trump’s experiment, will be looking for an alternative banner that will more accurately reflect their anger and deep-seated hatred of the rich and the establishment, which is merely an immature reflection of their instinctive hostility to the capitalist system itself. This will push them sharply to the left.

　　It is not at all far-fetched to foresee that some of the boldest, most dedicated and self-sacrificing militants of the future communist movement in America will consist precisely of workers who have passed through the school of Trumpism and drawn the correct conclusions from it. There have been many precedents for such developments in the past, as we have seen. 

　　Editor: Zhong Yao  Deng Panyi

　　From:https://marxist.com/the-meaning-of-donald-trump-a-marxist-analysis.htm/(2025-3-21)